Will everyone code 2-3x more quickly because of AI?
To get a sense of the impact of AI on coding, I conducted a survey of around 100 coders and people working in IT.
Respondents estimated, on average, that code could be developed in around 50% as much time (i.e. twice as quickly) in light of the fact that AI tools like GPT-4 exist. This was just assuming that AI stays as good as it is now. If they incorporated the fact that AI might get better, the estimate moved to almost 3x as good.
Of respondents who said that they were coders, 56% said they had already started using Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4.
There are several reasons to think the 2-3x forecast might not be correct:
Just because these people are actual software engineers, doesn’t mean they are good forecasters
They might not even have a good handle on the time benefits that they have already experienced (e.g. they might not track their time carefully, or know about the counterfactual)
The sample size was not that high—c100 people
I might not have worded the question clearly enough (click on the link for more details)
One questionable aspect of the way I worded the question is that I didn’t explicitly for or encourage the answer that AI tools might slow down people’s ability to code.
I don’t know about the extent to which current forecasts of AI timelines are accounting for this effect.
This is a really good piece of input for predictions of how the supply-demand curve for coding will change in the future.
50% increase in time effectively reduces cost of coding by 50%. Depending on the shape of the supply-demand curve for coding, this could lead to high unemployment, or a boom for coders that leads to even higher demand.
Note: coding productivity tools developed over the past 40 years have led to ever-increasing demand since so much value is generated :)
Will everyone code 2-3x more quickly because of AI?
To get a sense of the impact of AI on coding, I conducted a survey of around 100 coders and people working in IT.
Respondents estimated, on average, that code could be developed in around 50% as much time (i.e. twice as quickly) in light of the fact that AI tools like GPT-4 exist. This was just assuming that AI stays as good as it is now. If they incorporated the fact that AI might get better, the estimate moved to almost 3x as good.
Of respondents who said that they were coders, 56% said they had already started using Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4.
There are several reasons to think the 2-3x forecast might not be correct:
Just because these people are actual software engineers, doesn’t mean they are good forecasters
They might not even have a good handle on the time benefits that they have already experienced (e.g. they might not track their time carefully, or know about the counterfactual)
The sample size was not that high—c100 people
I might not have worded the question clearly enough (click on the link for more details)
One questionable aspect of the way I worded the question is that I didn’t explicitly for or encourage the answer that AI tools might slow down people’s ability to code.
I don’t know about the extent to which current forecasts of AI timelines are accounting for this effect.
You can scrutinise my work here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I3_0kiwCJKzpuRlc66ytQVSDAXLd8wj2NmYhpZ28m94/edit#gid=990899939
This is a really good piece of input for predictions of how the supply-demand curve for coding will change in the future.
50% increase in time effectively reduces cost of coding by 50%. Depending on the shape of the supply-demand curve for coding, this could lead to high unemployment, or a boom for coders that leads to even higher demand.
Note: coding productivity tools developed over the past 40 years have led to ever-increasing demand since so much value is generated :)