How about this: A) Take top N interventions ranked by putting all effort into far future effects B) Take top N interventions ranked by putting more effort into near than far future effects
(you can use whatever method you like to prioritise the interventions you investigate). Then for most measures of value, group (A) will have much higher expected value than group (B). Hence “most of the expected value is in the far future”.
Your initial comment was about slogan2 (“What matters most about our actions is their very long term effects”). I continue to think that this is not a useful framing. Some of our actions have big and predictable long-term effects, and we should focus on those. But most of our actions don’t have predictable long-term effects, so we shouldn’t be making generic statements about the long-term effects of an arbitrary action.
Re slogan1 (“Most expected value is in the far future”), it sounds like you’re interpreting it as being about the marginal EV of an action. I agree that it’s possible for the top long-term focused interventions to currently have a higher marginal EV than near-term focused interventions. But as these interventions are funded, I expect their marginal EV to decline (ie. diminishing returns), possibly to a value lower than the marginal EV of near-focused interventions.
How about this:
A) Take top N interventions ranked by putting all effort into far future effects
B) Take top N interventions ranked by putting more effort into near than far future effects
(you can use whatever method you like to prioritise the interventions you investigate). Then for most measures of value, group (A) will have much higher expected value than group (B). Hence “most of the expected value is in the far future”.
Your initial comment was about slogan2 (“What matters most about our actions is their very long term effects”). I continue to think that this is not a useful framing. Some of our actions have big and predictable long-term effects, and we should focus on those. But most of our actions don’t have predictable long-term effects, so we shouldn’t be making generic statements about the long-term effects of an arbitrary action.
Re slogan1 (“Most expected value is in the far future”), it sounds like you’re interpreting it as being about the marginal EV of an action. I agree that it’s possible for the top long-term focused interventions to currently have a higher marginal EV than near-term focused interventions. But as these interventions are funded, I expect their marginal EV to decline (ie. diminishing returns), possibly to a value lower than the marginal EV of near-focused interventions.