Peter here—so actually I’d say this isn’t clear now—here’s some recent work for example suggesting that estimates of future warming won’t change much compared to those from the previous set of models once recent observed warming is used as a constraint i.e. those newer models with higher sensitivity seem to warm too fast compared to observations e.g. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/12/eaaz9549 . Well, the models are only one piece of evidence going into the overall estimate anyway. I don’t follow the literature on this closely enough to be confident about what the IPCC will actually conclude.
Peter here—so actually I’d say this isn’t clear now—here’s some recent work for example suggesting that estimates of future warming won’t change much compared to those from the previous set of models once recent observed warming is used as a constraint i.e. those newer models with higher sensitivity seem to warm too fast compared to observations e.g. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/12/eaaz9549 . Well, the models are only one piece of evidence going into the overall estimate anyway. I don’t follow the literature on this closely enough to be confident about what the IPCC will actually conclude.