Since you devoted a subsection to moral circle expansion as a way of reducing s-risks, I guess you consider that its beneficial effects outweigh the backfire risks you mention (at least if MCE is done “in the right way”). CRS’ 2020 End-of-Year Fundraiser post also induces optimism regarding the impact of increasing moral consideration for artificial minds (the only remaining doubts seem to be about when and how to do it).
I wonder how confident we should be about this (the positiveness of MCE in reducing s-risks), at this point? Have you – or other researchers – made estimates confirming this, for instance? :)
Thanks for the comment, this is raising a very important point.
I am indeed fairly optimistic that thoughtful forms of MCE are positive regarding s-risks, although this qualifier of “in the right way” should be taken very seriously—I’m much less sure whether, say, funding PETA is positive. I also prefer to think in terms of how MCE could be made robustly positive, and distinguishing between different possible forms of it, rather than trying to make a generalised statement for or against MCE.
This is, however, not a very strongly held view (despite having thought a lot about it), in light of great uncertainty and also some degree of peer disagreement (other researchers being less sanguine about MCE).
Great piece, thanks !
Since you devoted a subsection to moral circle expansion as a way of reducing s-risks, I guess you consider that its beneficial effects outweigh the backfire risks you mention (at least if MCE is done “in the right way”). CRS’ 2020 End-of-Year Fundraiser post also induces optimism regarding the impact of increasing moral consideration for artificial minds (the only remaining doubts seem to be about when and how to do it).
I wonder how confident we should be about this (the positiveness of MCE in reducing s-risks), at this point? Have you – or other researchers – made estimates confirming this, for instance? :)
EDIT: Your piece Arguments for and against moral advocacy (2017) already raises relevant considerations but perhaps your view on this issue is clearer now.
Thanks for the comment, this is raising a very important point.
I am indeed fairly optimistic that thoughtful forms of MCE are positive regarding s-risks, although this qualifier of “in the right way” should be taken very seriously—I’m much less sure whether, say, funding PETA is positive. I also prefer to think in terms of how MCE could be made robustly positive, and distinguishing between different possible forms of it, rather than trying to make a generalised statement for or against MCE.
This is, however, not a very strongly held view (despite having thought a lot about it), in light of great uncertainty and also some degree of peer disagreement (other researchers being less sanguine about MCE).