If I was donating 90% every year, I think my probability of giving up permanently would be even higher than 50% each year. If I had zero time and money left to enjoy myself, my future self would almost certainly get demotivated and give up on this whole thing. Maybe I’d come back and donate a bit less but, for simplicity, let’s just assume that if Agape gives up, she stays given up.
The assumption that if she gives up, she is most likely to give up on donating completely seems not obvious to me. I would think that it’s more likely she scales back to a lower level, which would change the conclusion. It would be helpful to have data to determine which of these intuitions are correct.
Perhaps we should be encouraging a strategy where people increase their percentage donated by a few percentage points per year until they find the highest sustainable level for them. Combined with a community norm of acceptance for reductions in amounts donated, people could determine their highest sustainable donation level while lowering risk of stopping donations entirely.
The assumption that if she gives up, she is most likely to give up on donating completely seems not obvious to me. I would think that it’s more likely she scales back to a lower level, which would change the conclusion.
Yep, I agree that that’s probably more likely. I focused on giving up completely to keep things simple. But if it’s even somewhat likely (say, 1% p.a.), that may make a far bigger dent in your expected lifelong donations than do risks of giving up partially.
Perhaps we should be encouraging a strategy where people increase their percentage donated by a few percentage points per year until they find the highest sustainable level for them. Combined with a community norm of acceptance for reductions in amounts donated, people could determine their highest sustainable donation level while lowering risk of stopping donations entirely.
The assumption that if she gives up, she is most likely to give up on donating completely seems not obvious to me. I would think that it’s more likely she scales back to a lower level, which would change the conclusion. It would be helpful to have data to determine which of these intuitions are correct.
Perhaps we should be encouraging a strategy where people increase their percentage donated by a few percentage points per year until they find the highest sustainable level for them. Combined with a community norm of acceptance for reductions in amounts donated, people could determine their highest sustainable donation level while lowering risk of stopping donations entirely.
Yep, I agree that that’s probably more likely. I focused on giving up completely to keep things simple. But if it’s even somewhat likely (say, 1% p.a.), that may make a far bigger dent in your expected lifelong donations than do risks of giving up partially.
That certainly sounds sensible to me!