(Just hover over the link to see the current prediction.)
I myself am more optimistic about this question resolving negatively. But even if Russia would not close borders for a notable fraction of its citizens, it seems fairly likely that the aviation industry will collapse or shrink due to sanctions.
PSA: if you are in Russia, probably move out ASAP
The Metaculus crowd thinks that it’s very likely that Russia will restrict emigration this month:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10080/will-russia-close-borders-by-2022-04-01/
(Just hover over the link to see the current prediction.)
I myself am more optimistic about this question resolving negatively. But even if Russia would not close borders for a notable fraction of its citizens, it seems fairly likely that the aviation industry will collapse or shrink due to sanctions.
Related forecasts:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9918/martial-law-in-russia-before-april-2022/
https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-martial-law-be-declared-in-rus