The second and third possible motivations seem to have a Prisoner’s Dilemma element to them. They would motivate people to talk if and only if similarly situated individuals were talking. The inability to timely determine whether others have defected from the best-for-prisoners-collectively state is pretty important to the Dilemma.
Even worse, if other prisoners strongly oppose cooperation, they may find a way to collectively punish those who do defect. The original Dilemma only gives the jailers the ability to assign punishment based on defection/non-defection. None of that is meant to suggest that EA insiders would necessarily punish cooperators—I have no way of knowing that. But I expect most people would consider the possibility of who might be displeased with their cooperation.
Some Prisoners Dilemma dynamics are at play here, but there are some important differences (at least from the standard PD setup).
The PD setup pre-supposes guilt, which really isn’t appropriate in this case. An investigation should be trying to follow the facts wherever they lead. It’s perfectly plausible that, for example, an investigation could find that reasonable actions were taken after the Slack warning, that there were good reasons for not publicly discussing the existence or specifics of those actions, and that there really isn’t much to learn from the Slack incident. I personally think other findings are more likely, but the whole rationale for an independent investigation is that people shouldn’t have to speculate about questions we can answer empirically.
People who aren’t “guilty” could “defect” and do so in a way where they wouldn’t be able to be identified. For example, take someone from the EA leaders Slack group who nobody would expect to be responsible for following up about the SBF warnings posted in that group. That person could provide investigators a) a list of leaders in the group who could reasonably be expected to follow-up and b) which of those people acknowledged seeing the Slack warnings. They could do so without compromising their identity. The person who discussed the Slack warnings with the New Yorker reporter basically followed this template.
Re: your comment that “if other prisoners strongly oppose cooperation, they may find a way to collectively punish those who do defect”, this presumably doesn’t apply to people who have already “defected”. For instance, if Tara has a paper trail of the allegations she raised during the Alameda dispute and shared that with investigators, I doubt that would burn any more bridges with EA leadership than she’s already burned.
The PD setup pre-supposes guilt, which really isn’t appropriate in this case.
I think it works fairly well for innocence if one does not trust the investigators/cops. You might believe, for instance, that they are under pressure to find a scapegoat and would (consciously or otherwise) use statements toward an incorrect or overblown conclusion.
Re: your comment that “if other prisoners strongly oppose cooperation, they may find a way to collectively punish those who do defect”, this presumably doesn’t apply to people who have already “defected”.
True, but to the extent those people have the goods, motivation to disclose, and no fear of retaliation, it is not clear what would be stopping them from going to the media or even self-publishing. They might need to coordinate amongst themselves, but anyone with a sizable chunk of the goods likely knows who else has them.
The second and third possible motivations seem to have a Prisoner’s Dilemma element to them. They would motivate people to talk if and only if similarly situated individuals were talking. The inability to timely determine whether others have defected from the best-for-prisoners-collectively state is pretty important to the Dilemma.
Even worse, if other prisoners strongly oppose cooperation, they may find a way to collectively punish those who do defect. The original Dilemma only gives the jailers the ability to assign punishment based on defection/non-defection. None of that is meant to suggest that EA insiders would necessarily punish cooperators—I have no way of knowing that. But I expect most people would consider the possibility of who might be displeased with their cooperation.
Some Prisoners Dilemma dynamics are at play here, but there are some important differences (at least from the standard PD setup).
The PD setup pre-supposes guilt, which really isn’t appropriate in this case. An investigation should be trying to follow the facts wherever they lead. It’s perfectly plausible that, for example, an investigation could find that reasonable actions were taken after the Slack warning, that there were good reasons for not publicly discussing the existence or specifics of those actions, and that there really isn’t much to learn from the Slack incident. I personally think other findings are more likely, but the whole rationale for an independent investigation is that people shouldn’t have to speculate about questions we can answer empirically.
People who aren’t “guilty” could “defect” and do so in a way where they wouldn’t be able to be identified. For example, take someone from the EA leaders Slack group who nobody would expect to be responsible for following up about the SBF warnings posted in that group. That person could provide investigators a) a list of leaders in the group who could reasonably be expected to follow-up and b) which of those people acknowledged seeing the Slack warnings. They could do so without compromising their identity. The person who discussed the Slack warnings with the New Yorker reporter basically followed this template.
Re: your comment that “if other prisoners strongly oppose cooperation, they may find a way to collectively punish those who do defect”, this presumably doesn’t apply to people who have already “defected”. For instance, if Tara has a paper trail of the allegations she raised during the Alameda dispute and shared that with investigators, I doubt that would burn any more bridges with EA leadership than she’s already burned.
I think it works fairly well for innocence if one does not trust the investigators/cops. You might believe, for instance, that they are under pressure to find a scapegoat and would (consciously or otherwise) use statements toward an incorrect or overblown conclusion.
True, but to the extent those people have the goods, motivation to disclose, and no fear of retaliation, it is not clear what would be stopping them from going to the media or even self-publishing. They might need to coordinate amongst themselves, but anyone with a sizable chunk of the goods likely knows who else has them.