You’re right! It’s not that ETG is inherently bad (and frankly, I haven’t seen anyone make this argument), it’s that specific EV-maximising interpretations of ETG cause people to pursue careers that are (1) harmful, (2) net harmful, or (3) too risky to pay off.
Personally, I think FTX was (1) and (3), and unlikely to be (2) probably also (2). I’m not really sure where the bar is, but under any moderately deontological framework (1) is especially concerning, and many of the people EA might want to have a good reputation with believe (1). So that’s roughly the worldview-neutral case for caring about strongly rejecting EV-maximising forms of ETG.
I haven’t run the numbers myself but I generally assume that FTX’s account-holders were mostly moderately well-off HIC residents (based on roughly imbibed demographics of crypto), and the Future Fund’s beneficiaries are by and large worse off. There were probably some number of people who invested their life savings or were otherwise poor to begin with that were harmed more significantly then the beneficiaries of their money. But on the whole it feels like it was an accidental wealth transfer, and much of that harm will be mitigated if they’re made whole (but admittedly, the make-whole money just comes from crypto speculation that trades on the gullibility of yet more people).
But much less confident in this take; my point is much more around the real harms it caused being worth thinking about.
The possibility of “made whole” is based on crypto values at the time of bankruptcy filing—meaning not really whole.
FTXFF was IIRC ~$150MM in grants, a substantial portion of which will end up clawed back. The losses (based on current crypto values) are exponentially greater than that. I suspect that the bulk of the economic impact involves transfers from customers, investors, and lenders to Alameda creditors?
Also, one can argue that crypto itself is net harmful, so any crypto career is presumptively so as well.
You’re right! It’s not that ETG is inherently bad (and frankly, I haven’t seen anyone make this argument), it’s that specific EV-maximising interpretations of ETG cause people to pursue careers that are (1) harmful, (2) net harmful, or (3) too risky to pay off.
Personally, I think FTX was (1) and (3), and
unlikely to be (2)probably also (2). I’m not really sure where the bar is, but under any moderately deontological framework (1) is especially concerning, and many of the people EA might want to have a good reputation with believe (1). So that’s roughly the worldview-neutral case for caring about strongly rejecting EV-maximising forms of ETG.Wait, why do you think 2 is false for FTX? (Good comment though!)
I haven’t run the numbers myself but I generally assume that FTX’s account-holders were mostly moderately well-off HIC residents (based on roughly imbibed demographics of crypto), and the Future Fund’s beneficiaries are by and large worse off. There were probably some number of people who invested their life savings or were otherwise poor to begin with that were harmed more significantly then the beneficiaries of their money. But on the whole it feels like it was an accidental wealth transfer, and much of that harm will be mitigated if they’re made whole (but admittedly, the make-whole money just comes from crypto speculation that trades on the gullibility of yet more people).
But much less confident in this take; my point is much more around the real harms it caused being worth thinking about.
The possibility of “made whole” is based on crypto values at the time of bankruptcy filing—meaning not really whole.
FTXFF was IIRC ~$150MM in grants, a substantial portion of which will end up clawed back. The losses (based on current crypto values) are exponentially greater than that. I suspect that the bulk of the economic impact involves transfers from customers, investors, and lenders to Alameda creditors?
Also, one can argue that crypto itself is net harmful, so any crypto career is presumptively so as well.
I tend to agree with all these points, actually—forgot about the clawbacks & specifically how substantial they were.