The above calculation is done on life expectancies, treated as expected utilities; but human psychology doesn’t work like that:
Arguably in Chris’s particular case she may lose somewhat less than half her quality of life by conforming with the lockdown. In which case her behaviour looks irrational in life expectancy terms.
But Chris’s behaviour is rational if she is risk-seeking. She prefers gambling her life (and perhaps others’) by going to the beach, to the alternative of suffering a sure loss of quality of life by staying at home. This is normal behaviour in prospect theory—the same as a ‘desperado’ who, faced with arrest and inevitable jailtime, prefers the higher risk, less certain, lower expected utility option of stealing a car, shooting at cops etc. in the hope of getting away.
I.e. Chris, a 75-year-old desperado, is risking death to avoid imprisonment (and for some people, solitary confinement).
A significant further thought:
The above calculation is done on life expectancies, treated as expected utilities; but human psychology doesn’t work like that:
Arguably in Chris’s particular case she may lose somewhat less than half her quality of life by conforming with the lockdown. In which case her behaviour looks irrational in life expectancy terms.
But Chris’s behaviour is rational if she is risk-seeking. She prefers gambling her life (and perhaps others’) by going to the beach, to the alternative of suffering a sure loss of quality of life by staying at home. This is normal behaviour in prospect theory—the same as a ‘desperado’ who, faced with arrest and inevitable jailtime, prefers the higher risk, less certain, lower expected utility option of stealing a car, shooting at cops etc. in the hope of getting away.
I.e. Chris, a 75-year-old desperado, is risking death to avoid imprisonment (and for some people, solitary confinement).