“I’m not entirely sure how the MetaculusBot picked questions to replicate, but to me it doesn’t necessarily look like a random sample.”
Correct! I (err…MetaculusBot) chose markets to replicate on Manifold based on personal preference, heavily anchored toward questions in the Metaculus Effective Altruism category, as well as Ukraine as it seemed to be of most interest to the community at the time.
MetaculusBot has been dormant the last few months, at least in terms of market creation, but open to requests via tagged comment on Manifold, direct message to me here on the EA Forum, or via Twitter DM @dglid.
Credit to the Manifold team for the idea and letting me manage that account.
“I’m not entirely sure how the MetaculusBot picked questions to replicate, but to me it doesn’t necessarily look like a random sample.”
Correct! I (err…MetaculusBot) chose markets to replicate on Manifold based on personal preference, heavily anchored toward questions in the Metaculus Effective Altruism category, as well as Ukraine as it seemed to be of most interest to the community at the time.
MetaculusBot has been dormant the last few months, at least in terms of market creation, but open to requests via tagged comment on Manifold, direct message to me here on the EA Forum, or via Twitter DM @dglid.
Credit to the Manifold team for the idea and letting me manage that account.
It should be possible to fully automate the bot and just run a CRON job that regularly checks the Metaculus API for new questions, right?
And is the code to the MetaculusBot public somewhere? :)