I slightly tend towards yes, but that’s mere intuition. As someone on Twitter put it, “Metaculus has a more hardcore user base, because it’s less fun”—I find it plausible that the Metaculus user base and the Manifold user base differs. But higher trading volume I think would have helped.
For this particular analysis I’m not sure correcting for the number of forecasters would really be possible in a sound way. It would be great to get the MetaculusBot more active again to collect more data.
I slightly tend towards yes, but that’s mere intuition. As someone on Twitter put it, “Metaculus has a more hardcore user base, because it’s less fun”—I find it plausible that the Metaculus user base and the Manifold user base differs. But higher trading volume I think would have helped.
For this particular analysis I’m not sure correcting for the number of forecasters would really be possible in a sound way. It would be great to get the MetaculusBot more active again to collect more data.