Personally, I’m more worried about this paper. Here is a vox writeup. I don’t know that I think the linear growth story is true, and even if it was we could easily hit another break point (AI anyone?), but I’m more worried about this kind of decline than a blowup like LTG suggests.
I’m not an expert in this area, but think the paper you’re pointing to is leaning way too hard on a complicated model with a bad track record, and I’m weirded out by how little they compare model predictions and real data (eg using graphs). If I wanted to show off how awesome some model was, I’d be much more transparent
(note: Jackson makes a similar point re: lack of transparency).
Thanks for the answer and also the link to the paper, very interesting!
I did find it strange that they didn’t include a graph but I haven’t read enough economic papers to be confident.
This LessWrong post about Thomas’ paper is also interesting.