Thanks for the suggestion, Ryan! 50 k$ is a large fraction of my savings, so it would not work for me. Moreover, I agree software engineering will be largely automated until 2031. I am just very sceptical that this will lead to a growth explosion. I guess my probability of it being automated more than e.g. 99 % is much lower than yours, but this may be hard to operationalise. The bet does not have to resolve in time for human intervention for it to be financially positive for you if I transfer money to you now? I wonder whether you expect the annual unemployment rate, globally or in the United States (US), to be much higher in 2027. In the US, it was 4 % in 2024, and I would say the probability of it being higher than 8 % in 2027 is lower than 1⁄3.
Stocks grew 5 % per year from 1900 to 2022, and I think they will grow faster over the next 5 years, maybe around 10 % per year. So I would want to use an interest rate higher than yours of 4.5 %.
Thanks for the suggestion, Ryan! 50 k$ is a large fraction of my savings, so it would not work for me. Moreover, I agree software engineering will be largely automated until 2031. I am just very sceptical that this will lead to a growth explosion. I guess my probability of it being automated more than e.g. 99 % is much lower than yours, but this may be hard to operationalise. The bet does not have to resolve in time for human intervention for it to be financially positive for you if I transfer money to you now? I wonder whether you expect the annual unemployment rate, globally or in the United States (US), to be much higher in 2027. In the US, it was 4 % in 2024, and I would say the probability of it being higher than 8 % in 2027 is lower than 1⁄3.
Stocks grew 5 % per year from 1900 to 2022, and I think they will grow faster over the next 5 years, maybe around 10 % per year. So I would want to use an interest rate higher than yours of 4.5 %.