I decided to move my reply to GeorgeBridgwaterto this level of the thread, since I think the reply thread I created there deserves to be on its own and not be crowded out and sidetracked so heavily. But I do find this comment to be somewhat important so I reposted it here.
I want to reply to the point that attribution is fair concern. I worked directly in the animal movement before, and I have witnessed some suspected double/multiple counting of the same impact, and at least a part that is overlapping.
But here’s something important to know: Even if, say, two charities “double count” their contribution to an impact, it doesn’t mean one or both of them neccesarily have over reported their counterfactual impact. Why? Consider this toy example (long philosophical discussions):
Scenario A: Two rescue teams, one consisting of 3 rescuers and another consisting of 4, can together save 10 kids in danger. If one of the teams—in fact, one of the 7 members, don’t join, the 10 kids cannot be saved and will die.
Analysis of counterfactual impact: Since either team opting out would mean the kids would all die. So in the case of both (full) teams working together and saved 10 kids, each team’s counterfactual impact is 10 kids! In fact, if you break it down, each rescuer’s counterfactual impact is saving 10 kids (and can therefore each honestly claim that this is so)
If you are still interested, it could get more interesting here, especially for the donors.
Now consider scenario A’: Turns out that all of these rescuers each demand an expensive safety equipment in order to agree to go ahead. Each equipment costs $100. A total of $700 is required to save 10 kids.
Analysis of A’: Even though each team’s counterfactual impact by deciding to go ahead would have been saving 10 kids. A single donor donating $300 to one team and then $400 to another won’t have the counterfactual of saving 20 kids by the $700 donation! Instead, the $700 donation’s counterfactual impact is saving 10 kids.
Moral of A’: A donor could be donoting to two projects with total counterfactual impact of X+Y, while still possbily have a counterfactual impact from the donation that is smaller than X+Y. In fact, I suspect this might be happening within the cage-free movement space.
It could get even weirder, consider scenario A″: The only two donors who can donate in time, can only donate $300 and $400 respectively (let’s say it’s only possible for them to draw out these amounts in time). The $300 and $400 donations would each have the counterfactual impact of saving 10 kids. This is not just due to the fact that there are now two decision makers (donors), but also that each donor has a hard constraint that only allows them to donate $300/$400, making the another donation “neccessary” in a different sense than the $300/$400 in A’.
It could even weirder still, but it would basically become useless beyond here (if not earlier), and also useless for EA in general. So I won’t go into them.
I decided to move my reply to GeorgeBridgwater to this level of the thread, since I think the reply thread I created there deserves to be on its own and not be crowded out and sidetracked so heavily. But I do find this comment to be somewhat important so I reposted it here.
I want to reply to the point that attribution is fair concern. I worked directly in the animal movement before, and I have witnessed some suspected double/multiple counting of the same impact, and at least a part that is overlapping.
But here’s something important to know: Even if, say, two charities “double count” their contribution to an impact, it doesn’t mean one or both of them neccesarily have over reported their counterfactual impact. Why? Consider this toy example (long philosophical discussions):
Scenario A: Two rescue teams, one consisting of 3 rescuers and another consisting of 4, can together save 10 kids in danger. If one of the teams—in fact, one of the 7 members, don’t join, the 10 kids cannot be saved and will die.
Analysis of counterfactual impact: Since either team opting out would mean the kids would all die. So in the case of both (full) teams working together and saved 10 kids, each team’s counterfactual impact is 10 kids! In fact, if you break it down, each rescuer’s counterfactual impact is saving 10 kids (and can therefore each honestly claim that this is so)
If you are still interested, it could get more interesting here, especially for the donors.
Now consider scenario A’: Turns out that all of these rescuers each demand an expensive safety equipment in order to agree to go ahead. Each equipment costs $100. A total of $700 is required to save 10 kids.
Analysis of A’: Even though each team’s counterfactual impact by deciding to go ahead would have been saving 10 kids. A single donor donating $300 to one team and then $400 to another won’t have the counterfactual of saving 20 kids by the $700 donation! Instead, the $700 donation’s counterfactual impact is saving 10 kids.
Moral of A’: A donor could be donoting to two projects with total counterfactual impact of X+Y, while still possbily have a counterfactual impact from the donation that is smaller than X+Y. In fact, I suspect this might be happening within the cage-free movement space.
It could get even weirder, consider scenario A″: The only two donors who can donate in time, can only donate $300 and $400 respectively (let’s say it’s only possible for them to draw out these amounts in time). The $300 and $400 donations would each have the counterfactual impact of saving 10 kids. This is not just due to the fact that there are now two decision makers (donors), but also that each donor has a hard constraint that only allows them to donate $300/$400, making the another donation “neccessary” in a different sense than the $300/$400 in A’.
It could even weirder still, but it would basically become useless beyond here (if not earlier), and also useless for EA in general. So I won’t go into them.