You are missing one major category here: projects which are simply bad because they do have approximately zero impact, but aren’t particularly risky. I think this category is the largest of the the four.
I agree that’s likely. Please take the first paragraphs more as motivation than precise description of the categories.
Which projects have a chance of working and which don’t is often pretty clear to people who have experience evaluating projects quite quickly (which is why Oli suggested 15min for the initial investigation above).
I think we are comparing apples and oranges. As far as the output should be some publicly understandable reasoning behind the judgement, I don’t think this is doable in 15m.
It sounds to me a bit like your model of ideas which get proposed is that most of them are pretty valuable. I don’t think this is the case.
I don’t have strong prior on that.
To do this well they need to have a good mental map of what kind of projects have worked or not worked in the past,...
From a project-management perspective, yes, but with slow and bad feedback loops in long-term, x-risk and meta oriented projects, I don’t think it is easy to tell what works and what does not. (Even with projects working in the sense they run smoothly and are producing some visible output.)
I agree that’s likely. Please take the first paragraphs more as motivation than precise description of the categories.
I think we are comparing apples and oranges. As far as the output should be some publicly understandable reasoning behind the judgement, I don’t think this is doable in 15m.
I don’t have strong prior on that.
From a project-management perspective, yes, but with slow and bad feedback loops in long-term, x-risk and meta oriented projects, I don’t think it is easy to tell what works and what does not. (Even with projects working in the sense they run smoothly and are producing some visible output.)