Executive summary: The Forecasting Research Institute introduces LEAP, a three-year longitudinal survey tracking probabilistic forecasts from top AI experts, superforecasters, and the public; early results show experts expect major societal impacts from AI by 2040 but disagree widely about speed and scale, with industry leaders far more optimistic than both experts and the public.
Key points:
Purpose and scope: LEAP (Longitudinal Expert AI Panel) gathers monthly, verifiable forecasts from over 300 experts, 60 superforecasters, and 1,400 public participants to map how expectations about AI progress and impact evolve over time.
Early findings: Experts predict substantial AI effects on work, science, companionship, electricity use, and investment by 2040—comparable in scale to technologies like electricity or the automobile—but assign only a 23% chance to very rapid “AGI-like” progress by 2030.
Disagreement and uncertainty: Forecasts vary sharply; top-quartile experts predict far faster AI-driven advances (e.g., 81% chance of AI solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2040) than bottom-quartile experts (30%).
Industry vs. experts: Tech leaders such as Amodei, Altman, Musk, and Hassabis forecast near-term superhuman AI and massive job loss, while LEAP’s median expert predicts slower progress and modest short-term labor disruption.
Experts vs. public: The public expects less AI progress in roughly 70% of comparable forecasts—particularly underestimating AI’s roles in science, math, and autonomous vehicles.
Superforecasters and subfields: Superforecasters mostly align with experts but lean more conservative on progress; differences among economists, computer scientists, industry professionals, and policy experts are statistically small.
Next steps: LEAP will continue monthly waves through 2028 on themes such as AI safety, labor, and geopolitics, enabling accuracy tracking and analysis of “schools of thought” among expert predictors.
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Executive summary: The Forecasting Research Institute introduces LEAP, a three-year longitudinal survey tracking probabilistic forecasts from top AI experts, superforecasters, and the public; early results show experts expect major societal impacts from AI by 2040 but disagree widely about speed and scale, with industry leaders far more optimistic than both experts and the public.
Key points:
Purpose and scope: LEAP (Longitudinal Expert AI Panel) gathers monthly, verifiable forecasts from over 300 experts, 60 superforecasters, and 1,400 public participants to map how expectations about AI progress and impact evolve over time.
Early findings: Experts predict substantial AI effects on work, science, companionship, electricity use, and investment by 2040—comparable in scale to technologies like electricity or the automobile—but assign only a 23% chance to very rapid “AGI-like” progress by 2030.
Disagreement and uncertainty: Forecasts vary sharply; top-quartile experts predict far faster AI-driven advances (e.g., 81% chance of AI solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2040) than bottom-quartile experts (30%).
Industry vs. experts: Tech leaders such as Amodei, Altman, Musk, and Hassabis forecast near-term superhuman AI and massive job loss, while LEAP’s median expert predicts slower progress and modest short-term labor disruption.
Experts vs. public: The public expects less AI progress in roughly 70% of comparable forecasts—particularly underestimating AI’s roles in science, math, and autonomous vehicles.
Superforecasters and subfields: Superforecasters mostly align with experts but lean more conservative on progress; differences among economists, computer scientists, industry professionals, and policy experts are statistically small.
Next steps: LEAP will continue monthly waves through 2028 on themes such as AI safety, labor, and geopolitics, enabling accuracy tracking and analysis of “schools of thought” among expert predictors.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.