Update #2: titotal has published a full breakdown of the error involving the intersubjective resolution/​metaprediction framing of the survey question. It’s a great post that explains the error very well. Many thanks to titotal for taking the time to write the post and for talking to the Forecasting Research Institute about this. Thanks again to the Forecasting Research Institute for revising the report and this post.
Update #2: titotal has published a full breakdown of the error involving the intersubjective resolution/​metaprediction framing of the survey question. It’s a great post that explains the error very well. Many thanks to titotal for taking the time to write the post and for talking to the Forecasting Research Institute about this. Thanks again to the Forecasting Research Institute for revising the report and this post.