Speed of AI progress: By 2030, the average expert thinks there is a 23% chance of a “rapid” AI progress scenario, where AI writes Pulitzer Prize-worthy novels, collapses years-long research into days and weeks, outcompetes any human software engineer, and independently develops new cures for cancer. Conversely, they give a 28% chance of a slow-progress scenario, in which AI is a useful assisting technology but falls short of transformative impact.
This doesn’t seem accurate. I looked at the relevant parts of the report and I don’t agree with this summary. I made a whole post about this topic here.
This doesn’t seem accurate. I looked at the relevant parts of the report and I don’t agree with this summary. I made a whole post about this topic here.
Appreciate the careful read. I responded to your post.
Thank you for your response!