[...] Consider for instance whether you are willing to take the following gamble: you’re offered to press a button with a 51% chance of doubling the world’s happiness but a 49% chance of ending it.
This problem, also known as Thomas Hurka’s St Petersburg Paradox, highlights the following dilemma: Maximizing expected utility suggests you should press it, as it promises a net positive outcome.
I think biting the bullet on St. Petersburg paradox has basically no practictal implications, as one will arguably never be presented with the opportunity of doubling the value of the future with 51 % chance and ending it with 49 %. In contrast, rejecting expected utility maximisation (as you suggest) requires rejecting at least one of the axioms of Von Neumann–Morgenstern rationality:
Do you think one can reasomably reject any of these?
Thanks for the post, Arthur.
I think biting the bullet on St. Petersburg paradox has basically no practictal implications, as one will arguably never be presented with the opportunity of doubling the value of the future with 51 % chance and ending it with 49 %. In contrast, rejecting expected utility maximisation (as you suggest) requires rejecting at least one of the axioms of Von Neumann–Morgenstern rationality:
Do you think one can reasomably reject any of these?