I think it’s >60% likely that if an intervention doesn’t contribute significantly accelerating the development of technology which could pose existential risks, and is highly likely to be net positive for the experience of sentient beings in the next 0-5 years, then it has a net positive effect on the long-term future. I have no idea whether a completely undefined “arbitrarily chosen” intervention that is net positive for the next 0–5 years is likely to contribute to risky technology, since I feel confused about what would be a reasonable sample of five such arbitrarily chosen interventions. I might have a 50–50 prior just because of that fact, but that doesn’t seem like a good reason to have a 50–50 prior.
I think it’s >60% likely that if an intervention doesn’t contribute significantly accelerating the development of technology which could pose existential risks, and is highly likely to be net positive for the experience of sentient beings in the next 0-5 years, then it has a net positive effect on the long-term future. I have no idea whether a completely undefined “arbitrarily chosen” intervention that is net positive for the next 0–5 years is likely to contribute to risky technology, since I feel confused about what would be a reasonable sample of five such arbitrarily chosen interventions. I might have a 50–50 prior just because of that fact, but that doesn’t seem like a good reason to have a 50–50 prior.