Vasco Grilo🔸 comments on What’s your prior probability that “good things are good” (for the long-term future)?

[Vasco Grilo🔸]

Hi William,

Perhaps it would be helpful to Linch’s question to generate a list of 10-20 “good things” and then actually think about each one carefully and estimate the probability that it is good for the future, and good for the future in expectation, and use these 10-20 data points to estimate what one’s prior should be. (Any thoughts on whether this would be a worthwhile research activity, Linch or others reading this?)

For what is it worth, I think it would be worthwhile.