Prescriptive statements have no truth value — hence I have trouble understanding how they might be more likely to be true.
Comparing “what’s more likely to be true” is also confusing as, naively, you are comparing two probabilities (your best guesses) of X being true conditional on “T ” and “not T;” and one is normally very confident in their arithmetic abilities.
There are less naive ways of interpreting that would make sense, but they should be specified.
Lastly and probably most importantly, a “probability of being more likely under condition” is not illuminating (in these cases, e.g., how much larger expected returns to community building is actually an interesting one).
Sorry for the lack of clarity: I meant that despite my inability to interpret probabilities, I could sense their vibes, and I hold different vibes. And disagreeing with vibes is kinda difficult because you are unsure if you are interpreting them correctly. Typical forecasting questions aim to specify the question and produce probabilities to make underlying vibes more tangible and concrete — maybe allowing to have a more productive discussion. I am generally very sympathetic to the use of these as appropriate.
Well, yeah, I struggle with interpreting that:
Prescriptive statements have no truth value — hence I have trouble understanding how they might be more likely to be true.
Comparing “what’s more likely to be true” is also confusing as, naively, you are comparing two probabilities (your best guesses) of X being true conditional on “T ” and “not T;” and one is normally very confident in their arithmetic abilities.
There are less naive ways of interpreting that would make sense, but they should be specified.
Lastly and probably most importantly, a “probability of being more likely under condition” is not illuminating (in these cases, e.g., how much larger expected returns to community building is actually an interesting one).
Sorry for the lack of clarity: I meant that despite my inability to interpret probabilities, I could sense their vibes, and I hold different vibes. And disagreeing with vibes is kinda difficult because you are unsure if you are interpreting them correctly. Typical forecasting questions aim to specify the question and produce probabilities to make underlying vibes more tangible and concrete — maybe allowing to have a more productive discussion. I am generally very sympathetic to the use of these as appropriate.