Not sure if you were referring to that particular post or the whole sequence. If I follow it correctly, I think that particular post is trying to answer the question ‘how can we plausibly impact the long-term future, assuming it’s important to do so’. I think it’s a pretty good treatment of that question!
But I wouldn’t mentally file that under cluelessness as I understand the term, because that would also be an issue under ordinary uncertainty. To the extent you explain how cluelessness is different to garden-variety uncertainty and why we can’t deal with it in the same way(s), it’s earlier in your sequence of posts, and so far I think I have not been moved away from the objection you try to address in your second post, though if you read the (long) exchange with MichaelStJules above you can see him trying to move me and at minimum succeeding in giving me a better picture of where the disagreements might be.
Edit: I guess what I’m really saying is that the part of that sequence which seems useful and interesting to me—the last bit—could also have been written and would be just as important if we were merely normally-uncertain about the future, as opposed to cluelessly-uncertain.
Do you feel that the frame I offered here has no decision-relevance?
Not sure if you were referring to that particular post or the whole sequence. If I follow it correctly, I think that particular post is trying to answer the question ‘how can we plausibly impact the long-term future, assuming it’s important to do so’. I think it’s a pretty good treatment of that question!
But I wouldn’t mentally file that under cluelessness as I understand the term, because that would also be an issue under ordinary uncertainty. To the extent you explain how cluelessness is different to garden-variety uncertainty and why we can’t deal with it in the same way(s), it’s earlier in your sequence of posts, and so far I think I have not been moved away from the objection you try to address in your second post, though if you read the (long) exchange with MichaelStJules above you can see him trying to move me and at minimum succeeding in giving me a better picture of where the disagreements might be.
Edit: I guess what I’m really saying is that the part of that sequence which seems useful and interesting to me—the last bit—could also have been written and would be just as important if we were merely normally-uncertain about the future, as opposed to cluelessly-uncertain.
Is there a tl;dr of the distinction you’re drawing between normal uncertainty and clueless uncertainty?