Thanks for the great post, Gregory. Do you have any thoughts on the sequence “The challenge of unawareness for impartial altruist action guidance” from @Anthony DiGiovanni 🔸?
Yet across my forecasts (on topics including legislation in particular countries, election results, whether people remain in office, and property prices - _all _of which I know very little about), I do somewhat better than the median forecaster, and substantially better than chance (Brier ~ 0.23). Crucially, the median forecaster also almost always does better than chance too (~ 0.32 for those who answered the same questions as I) - which seems the analogous consideration for cluelessness given our interest is in objective rather than relative accuracy.[16]
The Brier score for predictions of 50 % for everything would be 0.25 (= 0.5^2), which is only slightly worse than yours of 0.23, and better than that of the median forecaster of 0.32?
Thanks for the great post, Gregory. Do you have any thoughts on the sequence “The challenge of unawareness for impartial altruist action guidance” from @Anthony DiGiovanni 🔸?
The Brier score for predictions of 50 % for everything would be 0.25 (= 0.5^2), which is only slightly worse than yours of 0.23, and better than that of the median forecaster of 0.32?