Apart from the biological anchors approach, what efforts in AI timelines or takeoff dynamics forecasting—both inside and outside Open Phil—are you most excited about?
I’m pretty excited about economic modeling-based approaches, either:
Estimating the value-added from machine learning historically and extrapolating it into the future, or
Doing a takeoff analysis that takes into account how AI progress relates to inputs such as hardware and software effort, and the extent to which AI of a certain quality level can allow hardware to substitute for software effort, similar to the “Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” paper.
Apart from the biological anchors approach, what efforts in AI timelines or takeoff dynamics forecasting—both inside and outside Open Phil—are you most excited about?
I’m pretty excited about economic modeling-based approaches, either:
Estimating the value-added from machine learning historically and extrapolating it into the future, or
Doing a takeoff analysis that takes into account how AI progress relates to inputs such as hardware and software effort, and the extent to which AI of a certain quality level can allow hardware to substitute for software effort, similar to the “Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” paper.