What skills/types of people do you think AI forecasting needs?
I know you asked Ajeya, but I’m going to add my own unsolicited opinion that we need more people with professional risk analysis backgrounds, and if we’re going to do expert judgment elicitations as part of forecasting then we need people with professional elicitation backgrounds. Properly done elicitations are hard. (Relevant background: I led an AI forecasting project for about a year.)
I know you asked Ajeya, but I’m going to add my own unsolicited opinion that we need more people with professional risk analysis backgrounds, and if we’re going to do expert judgment elicitations as part of forecasting then we need people with professional elicitation backgrounds. Properly done elicitations are hard. (Relevant background: I led an AI forecasting project for about a year.)