Thanks, this was a surprisingly helpful answer, and I had high expectations!
This is updating me somewhat towards doing more blog posts of the sort that I’ve been doing. As it happens, I have a draft of one that is very much Category 3, let me know if you are interested in giving comments!
Your sense of why we disagree is pretty accurate, I think. The only thing I’d add is that I do think we should update downwards on low-end compute scenarios because of market efficiency considerations, just not as strongly as you perhaps, and moreover I also think that we should update upwards for various reasons (the surprising recent sucesses of deep learning, the fact that big corporations are investing heavily-by-historical-standards in AI, the fact that various experts think they are close to achieving AGI) and the upwards update mostly cancels out the downwards update IMO.
Thanks, this was a surprisingly helpful answer, and I had high expectations!
This is updating me somewhat towards doing more blog posts of the sort that I’ve been doing. As it happens, I have a draft of one that is very much Category 3, let me know if you are interested in giving comments!
Your sense of why we disagree is pretty accurate, I think. The only thing I’d add is that I do think we should update downwards on low-end compute scenarios because of market efficiency considerations, just not as strongly as you perhaps, and moreover I also think that we should update upwards for various reasons (the surprising recent sucesses of deep learning, the fact that big corporations are investing heavily-by-historical-standards in AI, the fact that various experts think they are close to achieving AGI) and the upwards update mostly cancels out the downwards update IMO.