Thank you very much for explaining this! I appreciate the analogy of the flood damage and tiny risks with great reward, that’s such an interesting point that I never considered. After researching that, it seems like what you’re describing is Pascal’s mugging, so I’ll read up on that also. Thanks again.
What I was describing wasn’t exactly Pascal’s mugging. Pascal’s mugging is an attempted argument *against* this sort of reasoning, by arguing that it leads to pathological conclusions (like that you ought to pay the mugger, when all he’s told you is some ridiculous story about how, if you don’t, there’s a tiny chance that something catastrophic will happen). Of course, some people bite the bullet and say that you just should pay the mugger, others claim that this sort of uncertainty reasoning doesn’t actually lead you to pay the mugger, and so on. I don’t really have a thought-out view on Pascal’s mugging myself. The reason what I’m describing is different is that [this sort of reasoning leading you to *not* kill someone] wouldn’t be considered a pathological conclusion by most people (same with buying flood insurance).