There is an ambiguity about âcapabilitiesâ versus deployment here to be fair. Your âthat will not happenâ seems somewhat more reasonable to me if we are requiring that the AIs are actually deployed and doing all this stuff versus merely that models capable of doing this stuff have been created. I think it was the latter we were forecasting, but Iâm not 100% certain.
I think including widespread deployment in the rapid scenario makes it modestly more unlikely but not radically so. The fundamental issue is that these capabilities cannot be developed within 5 years. Is there a small chance? Yes, sure, but a very small one.
There is an ambiguity about âcapabilitiesâ versus deployment here to be fair. Your âthat will not happenâ seems somewhat more reasonable to me if we are requiring that the AIs are actually deployed and doing all this stuff versus merely that models capable of doing this stuff have been created. I think it was the latter we were forecasting, but Iâm not 100% certain.
I think including widespread deployment in the rapid scenario makes it modestly more unlikely but not radically so. The fundamental issue is that these capabilities cannot be developed within 5 years. Is there a small chance? Yes, sure, but a very small one.