I do agree there’s a worry about how much calibration training or forecasting in one area, will transfer to other areas. My best guess is there some transfer but there’s not as much evidence about it as I’d like.
I also think of forecasting as more like a subfactor of good judgement, so I’m not claiming there will be a transfer of cognitive skills – rather I’m claiming that if you practice a specific skill (forecasting), you will get better at that skill.
Hi Misha,
I do agree there’s a worry about how much calibration training or forecasting in one area, will transfer to other areas. My best guess is there some transfer but there’s not as much evidence about it as I’d like.
I also think of forecasting as more like a subfactor of good judgement, so I’m not claiming there will be a transfer of cognitive skills – rather I’m claiming that if you practice a specific skill (forecasting), you will get better at that skill.
I’d also suggest looking directly at the evidence on whether forecasting can be improved and seeing what you think of it: https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/efforts-improve-accuracy-our-judgments-and-forecasts