Apologies, I think the juxtaposition of “non-zero chance of >10,000 deaths” and “unlikely to be COVID scale” led me to think you were claiming something different
Currently, H5N1 scores a 5⁄14. COVID scored a 13⁄14.
+1 point: You’d have a death toll of > 2,000, 5x beyond when we saw the stock market crash during COVID
+1 point: Almost certainly, the disease would have altered to be transmitted efficiently from human to human via respiration. Human-to-human H5N1 will lead to a very serious response to contain it, and if we can’t contain it at a few poultry/mink farmworkers, that’s a sign it spreads very efficiently.
+1 point: That transmission mechanism would likely mean it has led to community spread
+1 point: Almost certainly this would be front page news because bird flu is scary even when it’s mostly just in birds and animals and sporadically in farmworkers.
Possible +1 point: Once we get to 10,000 deaths, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where that’s true but it’s contained to a single country. Could happen (a Chinese mink farm leads to efficient human transmission; a Wuhan-on-steroids lockdown isolates it perfectly from the rest of the world), but doesn’t seem likely.
Possible +1 point: If it’s limited to one country, they might choose to quarantine the region to contain it. Global spread may see a return to things like travel bans to island nations or other serious containment measures. Pretty easy to imagine a situation with at least one going on.
Possible +1 point: A 50% CFR from a respiratory infection could easily overwhelm hospitals
Possible +1 point: If we started to see all these problems, that would almost certainly motivate pharma to rush for mRNA vaccines and other tools
That puts it at anywhere from a 9⁄14 for the “almost certain to occur by 10,000 deaths” checklist items to a 13⁄14 (a score that’s far more plausible to me).
I’m working with the assumption that we can either test for it sufficiently well, or that given how deadly it is, we just enforce zero tolerance for social contact for any symptoms of illness. If we had testing difficulties, failed to enforce strict social distancing, or had to deal with asymptomatic spread, then I think by the time we’re at 10,000 deaths, we’re probably already at a full-blown 14⁄14 situation that, if not already categorized as a pandemic, is well on its way.
I think claiming 10,000 lives but being nowhere next COVID scale is pretty unlikely. What mechanism do you suggest would control it at this point?
I don’t think I suggested that? Forgive me if the original post was phrased poorly, I wrote it in some fourty minutes.
My point with mentioning 10,000 lives lost was to operationalize the question of whether it becomes a serious pandemic.
Apologies, I think the juxtaposition of “non-zero chance of >10,000 deaths” and “unlikely to be COVID scale” led me to think you were claiming something different
Agreed. Here’s the account I would give, using my pandemic prediction checklist framework.
Currently, H5N1 scores a 5⁄14. COVID scored a 13⁄14.
+1 point: You’d have a death toll of > 2,000, 5x beyond when we saw the stock market crash during COVID
+1 point: Almost certainly, the disease would have altered to be transmitted efficiently from human to human via respiration. Human-to-human H5N1 will lead to a very serious response to contain it, and if we can’t contain it at a few poultry/mink farmworkers, that’s a sign it spreads very efficiently.
+1 point: That transmission mechanism would likely mean it has led to community spread
+1 point: Almost certainly this would be front page news because bird flu is scary even when it’s mostly just in birds and animals and sporadically in farmworkers.
Possible +1 point: Once we get to 10,000 deaths, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where that’s true but it’s contained to a single country. Could happen (a Chinese mink farm leads to efficient human transmission; a Wuhan-on-steroids lockdown isolates it perfectly from the rest of the world), but doesn’t seem likely.
Possible +1 point: If it’s limited to one country, they might choose to quarantine the region to contain it. Global spread may see a return to things like travel bans to island nations or other serious containment measures. Pretty easy to imagine a situation with at least one going on.
Possible +1 point: A 50% CFR from a respiratory infection could easily overwhelm hospitals
Possible +1 point: If we started to see all these problems, that would almost certainly motivate pharma to rush for mRNA vaccines and other tools
That puts it at anywhere from a 9⁄14 for the “almost certain to occur by 10,000 deaths” checklist items to a 13⁄14 (a score that’s far more plausible to me).
I’m working with the assumption that we can either test for it sufficiently well, or that given how deadly it is, we just enforce zero tolerance for social contact for any symptoms of illness. If we had testing difficulties, failed to enforce strict social distancing, or had to deal with asymptomatic spread, then I think by the time we’re at 10,000 deaths, we’re probably already at a full-blown 14⁄14 situation that, if not already categorized as a pandemic, is well on its way.