I think it wouldn’t be a problem if either the question had been phrased in terms of the expected number of human-to-human cases, or if there were other questions for specific orders of magnitude. I think the latter could still be done, and it would contextualize the first question.
Good points. As is often the case with forecasting questions, the details of the resolution criteria matter quite a bit. For this question to resolve as “yes”, the UK Health Security Agency must classify H5N1 as a “level 5 risk.” Currently it is classified as a level 3 risk.
So, forecasters on Metaculus are predicting whether the UK Health Security Agency will raise the H5N1 risk level to level 5, which signifies human-to-human transmission.
I think it wouldn’t be a problem if either the question had been phrased in terms of the expected number of human-to-human cases, or if there were other questions for specific orders of magnitude. I think the latter could still be done, and it would contextualize the first question.
Good points. As is often the case with forecasting questions, the details of the resolution criteria matter quite a bit. For this question to resolve as “yes”, the UK Health Security Agency must classify H5N1 as a “level 5 risk.” Currently it is classified as a level 3 risk.
So, forecasters on Metaculus are predicting whether the UK Health Security Agency will raise the H5N1 risk level to level 5, which signifies human-to-human transmission.