I’m curating this — thanks a bunch for making it. I’d be very glad to see more comments and resource-sharing here, and more posts like this in the future in similar situations.
Note also two recent posts from DirectedEvolution:
One thing I’m curious about, given the predictions on whether the WHO will declare a PHEIC for H5N1: how come there wasn’t a spike (or even growth) in markets like this one? The mink-to-mink transmission seems to be concerning, and that happened and was known in October.
It could just be that reason the market isn´t moving is NOT because traders didn´t find it concerning but instead because the market is too low liquidity to be efficient. That´s very much my impression of low liquidity markets at least (I.e. there´s only 20 traders total in this case)
I’m not sure exactly when it became clear that we’re having a bad bird flu year, but it’s possible the mink farm outbreak wasn’t that big an update for the forecasters who were already seeing lots of transmission to mammals, just not among them.
I’m curating this — thanks a bunch for making it. I’d be very glad to see more comments and resource-sharing here, and more posts like this in the future in similar situations.
Note also two recent posts from DirectedEvolution:
Pandemic Prediction Checklist: H5N1
Stop an H5N1 pandemic: barn nets and respirators
One thing I’m curious about, given the predictions on whether the WHO will declare a PHEIC for H5N1: how come there wasn’t a spike (or even growth) in markets like this one? The mink-to-mink transmission seems to be concerning, and that happened and was known in October.
It could just be that reason the market isn´t moving is NOT because traders didn´t find it concerning but instead because the market is too low liquidity to be efficient. That´s very much my impression of low liquidity markets at least (I.e. there´s only 20 traders total in this case)
I’m not sure exactly when it became clear that we’re having a bad bird flu year, but it’s possible the mink farm outbreak wasn’t that big an update for the forecasters who were already seeing lots of transmission to mammals, just not among them.