Here is their plot over time, from the Chapter 2 Appendix. I think these are the raw per-year scores, not the averages.
I find this really baffling. It’s probably not political; the Modi government took power in 2014 and only lost absolute majority in late 2024. The effects of COVID seem to be varied; India did relatively well in 2020 but got obliterated by the Delta variant in 2021. Equally, GDP per capita steadily increased over this time, barring a dip in 2020. Population has steadily increased, and growth has steadily decreased.
India have long had a larger residual value than others in the WHR’s happiness model; they’re much less happy than their model might predict.
Without access to the raw data, it’s hard to say if Gallup’s methodology has changed over this time; India is a huge and varied country, and it’s hard to tell if Gallup maintained a similar sample over time.
Thanks for digging up that plot, I’d been looking for annual data instead of 3-year rolling averages.
Here’s what WHR say about their methodology which seems relevant.
What is your sample size?
The number of people and countries surveyed varies year to year but, in general, more than 100,000 people in 140 countries and territories participate in the Gallup World Poll each year.
In most countries, approximately 1,000 people are contacted by telephone or face-to-face each year. Tables 1-5 in the Statistical Appendix show the sample size for each country since 2005. Gallup’s website provides more details on their data collection methods. …
What time of year is the data collected?
The Gallup World Poll collects data throughout the year, taking into account religious observances, weather patterns, pandemics, war, and other local factors. Variation in collection timing is not a serious obstacle to analysis as there are established techniques to test for seasonal effects and adjust for them (see this paper for an example).
That Gallup website doesn’t say if they’ve changed their methodology over time; that said, they seem to try their best to maintain a similar sample over time, e.g.
With some exceptions, all samples are probability based and nationally representative of the resident population aged 15 and older. The coverage area is the entire country including rural areas, and the sampling frame represents the entire civilian, non-institutionalized adult population of the country.
Here is their plot over time, from the Chapter 2 Appendix. I think these are the raw per-year scores, not the averages.
I find this really baffling. It’s probably not political; the Modi government took power in 2014 and only lost absolute majority in late 2024. The effects of COVID seem to be varied; India did relatively well in 2020 but got obliterated by the Delta variant in 2021. Equally, GDP per capita steadily increased over this time, barring a dip in 2020. Population has steadily increased, and growth has steadily decreased.
India have long had a larger residual value than others in the WHR’s happiness model; they’re much less happy than their model might predict.
Without access to the raw data, it’s hard to say if Gallup’s methodology has changed over this time; India is a huge and varied country, and it’s hard to tell if Gallup maintained a similar sample over time.
Thanks for digging up that plot, I’d been looking for annual data instead of 3-year rolling averages.
Here’s what WHR say about their methodology which seems relevant.
That Gallup website doesn’t say if they’ve changed their methodology over time; that said, they seem to try their best to maintain a similar sample over time, e.g.
I remain as baffled as you are.