I’m considering taking the very +EV betting opportunities available with the US election with the money I plan to donate over the next 6 months, then donating the winnings (or not donating if I lose).
Some more discussion on my twitter here but I’m interested in thoughts from EAF members too. It’s not a huge amount of money either way.
Together with a few EA friends, I ended up betting a substantial amount of money on Biden. It went well for me, too, as well as for some of my friends. I think presidential elections present unusually good opportunities for both betting and arbitrage, so it may be worth coordinating some joint effort next time.
(As a note of historical interest, during the 2012 US election a small group of early EAs made some money arbitraging Intrade.)
I’m considering taking the very +EV betting opportunities available with the US election with the money I plan to donate over the next 6 months, then donating the winnings (or not donating if I lose).
Some more discussion on my twitter here but I’m interested in thoughts from EAF members too. It’s not a huge amount of money either way.
I ended up doing this.
This went well :) Congrats EAF meta, Rethink, and GFI on your winnings.
Together with a few EA friends, I ended up betting a substantial amount of money on Biden. It went well for me, too, as well as for some of my friends. I think presidential elections present unusually good opportunities for both betting and arbitrage, so it may be worth coordinating some joint effort next time.
(As a note of historical interest, during the 2012 US election a small group of early EAs made some money arbitraging Intrade.)