I suggest that charity evaluators generally work best, inter alia, when: (1) the charities to be evaluated are somewhat established such as to allow evaluation of a track record; (2) the charities are offering a “stable” enough intervention that a review should largely remain valid for at least a few years; (3) a field isn’t moving/evolving so quickly that prior reviews will age out quickly; and (4) there’s enough room for more funding in the top-evaluated orgs that would counterfactually go unfilled to make the process worthwhile. All of those conditions seem much less present in longtermism.
My sense is that at least the top 20% or so longtermist org are very likely to be funded anyway. In contrast, global health or animal orgs can almost always use more money at only a slight reduction in marginal cost-effectiveness. Finally, it’s probably relevant that those orgs are competing for resources from non-EA donors with mainstream NGOs in a way that longtermist EA orgs generally aren’t.
I suggest that charity evaluators generally work best, inter alia, when: (1) the charities to be evaluated are somewhat established such as to allow evaluation of a track record; (2) the charities are offering a “stable” enough intervention that a review should largely remain valid for at least a few years; (3) a field isn’t moving/evolving so quickly that prior reviews will age out quickly; and (4) there’s enough room for more funding in the top-evaluated orgs that would counterfactually go unfilled to make the process worthwhile. All of those conditions seem much less present in longtermism.
My sense is that at least the top 20% or so longtermist org are very likely to be funded anyway. In contrast, global health or animal orgs can almost always use more money at only a slight reduction in marginal cost-effectiveness. Finally, it’s probably relevant that those orgs are competing for resources from non-EA donors with mainstream NGOs in a way that longtermist EA orgs generally aren’t.