Although we could potentially derive probabilities of various sorts of nuclear incidents causing extinction, the probabilities of those events occuring in the first place are in the end guesswork. By definition, there can be no “evidentiary confirmation” of the guesswork because once the event occurs, there is no one around to confirm it happened. Thus, the probabilities of event occurence could be well-informed guesswork, but would still be guesswork.
Although we could potentially derive probabilities of various sorts of nuclear incidents causing extinction, the probabilities of those events occuring in the first place are in the end guesswork. By definition, there can be no “evidentiary confirmation” of the guesswork because once the event occurs, there is no one around to confirm it happened. Thus, the probabilities of event occurence could be well-informed guesswork, but would still be guesswork.