Executive summary: Acemoglu’s 2024 paper predicting small economic growth effects from AI is flawed because it ignores or dismisses important channels through which AI could significantly boost productivity, and relies on assumptions that may not hold as AI capabilities advance.
Key points:
Acemoglu’s paper considers four channels for AI to affect productivity, but focuses primarily on extensive-margin automation while dismissing or ignoring the potential impacts of AI deepening automation, creating new tasks, and accelerating scientific progress.
The paper’s justifications for ignoring these other channels are weak or absent, suggesting motivated reasoning to downplay AI’s potential economic impact.
Acemoglu’s estimate of productivity gains from extensive-margin automation relies on exposure and cost-saving estimates based on current AI capabilities, which are likely to significantly increase over the paper’s 10-year time horizon.
The paper’s narrow focus and assumptions lead to an underestimation of AI’s potential to drive economic growth through multiple channels beyond just automating existing tasks.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Acemoglu’s 2024 paper predicting small economic growth effects from AI is flawed because it ignores or dismisses important channels through which AI could significantly boost productivity, and relies on assumptions that may not hold as AI capabilities advance.
Key points:
Acemoglu’s paper considers four channels for AI to affect productivity, but focuses primarily on extensive-margin automation while dismissing or ignoring the potential impacts of AI deepening automation, creating new tasks, and accelerating scientific progress.
The paper’s justifications for ignoring these other channels are weak or absent, suggesting motivated reasoning to downplay AI’s potential economic impact.
Acemoglu’s estimate of productivity gains from extensive-margin automation relies on exposure and cost-saving estimates based on current AI capabilities, which are likely to significantly increase over the paper’s 10-year time horizon.
The paper’s narrow focus and assumptions lead to an underestimation of AI’s potential to drive economic growth through multiple channels beyond just automating existing tasks.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.