Interesting points. Anecdotally, I also think that the research output of most PIs that I got to know better was significantly constrained by busywork that could be outsourced relatively easily.
A scientific prediction market would allow the Ph.D. with niche expertise to systematically beat the market on a few questions and earn a living wage that way
I’m spontaneously doubtful that a realistic version of a scientific prediction market will provide a living wage this way. E.g. with the most liquid polymarket question, currently at .75c, you can at maximum expect a profit of 5.000$ if you’re sure the event will happen and wager 10.000$.
Re Setting up an academic prediction markets: Eva Vivalt has set up a prediction platform for social science studies some time ago that might be interesting to look into: https://socialscienceprediction.org/
The social sciences have witnessed a dramatic shift in the last 25 years. Rigorous research designs have drastically improved the credibility of research findings. However, while research designs have improved, less progress has been made in relating experimental findings to the views of the broader scientific community and policy-makers. Individual researchers have begun to gather predictions about the effects they might find in their studies, as this information can be helpful in interpreting research results. Still, we could learn more from predictions if they were elicited in a coordinated, systematic way. See this Science article for a short summary.
This prediction platform will allow for the systematic collection and assessment of expert forecasts of the effects of untested social programs. In turn, this should help both policy makers and social scientists by improving the accuracy of forecasts, allowing for more effective decision-making and improving experimental design and analysis.
Thank you very much for sharing, I didn’t know that platform before! Looks like a great initiative and the science article is also very inspired. The failure mode I see is that they might be aiming too broad—realistically for this to take off you might want to start with a small group of very devoted users who can also benefit from the effort they invest? But finding that group poses a different set of problems, of course.
Regarding the “living wage” argument—thank you for calling me out on that, I crossed the line into science fiction there.
Interesting points. Anecdotally, I also think that the research output of most PIs that I got to know better was significantly constrained by busywork that could be outsourced relatively easily.
I’m spontaneously doubtful that a realistic version of a scientific prediction market will provide a living wage this way. E.g. with the most liquid polymarket question, currently at .75c, you can at maximum expect a profit of 5.000$ if you’re sure the event will happen and wager 10.000$.
Re Setting up an academic prediction markets: Eva Vivalt has set up a prediction platform for social science studies some time ago that might be interesting to look into: https://socialscienceprediction.org/
Thank you very much for sharing, I didn’t know that platform before! Looks like a great initiative and the science article is also very inspired. The failure mode I see is that they might be aiming too broad—realistically for this to take off you might want to start with a small group of very devoted users who can also benefit from the effort they invest? But finding that group poses a different set of problems, of course.
Regarding the “living wage” argument—thank you for calling me out on that, I crossed the line into science fiction there.
Just found an article by Robin Hanson from 1990 on this topic: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/gamble.html I didn’t realize that the idea had been around for that long!