This kind of debate is why I’d like to see the next wave of Tetlock-style research focus on the predictive value of different types of evidence. We know a good bit now about the types of cognitive styles that are useful for predicting the future, and even for estimating causal effects in simulated worlds. But we still don’t know that much about the kinds of evidence that help. (Base rates, sure, but what else?) Say you’re trying to predict the outcome of an experiment. Is reading about a similar experiment helpful? Is descriptive data helpful? Is interviewing three people who’ve experienced the phenomenon? When is one more and less useful? It’s time to take these questions about evidence from the realms of philosophy, statistical theory, and personal opinion and study them as social phenomena. And yes, that is circular because what kind of evidence on evidence counts? But I think we’d still benefit from knowing a lot more on the usefulness of different sorts of evidence and prediction tournaments would be a nice way to study their cash value.