Executive summary: The paper argues that the strategic dynamics and assumptions driving a race to develop Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) ultimately render such efforts catastrophically dangerous and self-defeating, advocating for international cooperation and restraint instead.
Key points:
A race to develop ASI is driven by assumptions that ASI provides a decisive military advantage and that states are aware of its strategic importance, yet these assumptions also highlight the race’s inherent dangers.
The pursuit of ASI risks triggering great power conflicts, particularly between the US and China, as states may perceive adversaries’ advancements as existential threats, prompting military interventions.
Racing to develop ASI increases the risk of losing control over the technology, especially given the competitive pressures to prioritize speed over safety and the theoretical high risk of rapid capability escalation.
A successful ASI could disrupt internal power structures within the state that develops it, potentially undermining democratic institutions through an extreme concentration of power.
The existential threats posed by an ASI race include great power conflict, loss of control of ASI, and the internal concentration of power, which collectively form successive barriers that a state must overcome to ‘win’ the race.
The paper recommends establishing an international verification regime to ensure compliance with agreements to refrain from pursuing ASI projects, as a more strategic and safer alternative to racing.
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Executive summary: The paper argues that the strategic dynamics and assumptions driving a race to develop Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) ultimately render such efforts catastrophically dangerous and self-defeating, advocating for international cooperation and restraint instead.
Key points:
A race to develop ASI is driven by assumptions that ASI provides a decisive military advantage and that states are aware of its strategic importance, yet these assumptions also highlight the race’s inherent dangers.
The pursuit of ASI risks triggering great power conflicts, particularly between the US and China, as states may perceive adversaries’ advancements as existential threats, prompting military interventions.
Racing to develop ASI increases the risk of losing control over the technology, especially given the competitive pressures to prioritize speed over safety and the theoretical high risk of rapid capability escalation.
A successful ASI could disrupt internal power structures within the state that develops it, potentially undermining democratic institutions through an extreme concentration of power.
The existential threats posed by an ASI race include great power conflict, loss of control of ASI, and the internal concentration of power, which collectively form successive barriers that a state must overcome to ‘win’ the race.
The paper recommends establishing an international verification regime to ensure compliance with agreements to refrain from pursuing ASI projects, as a more strategic and safer alternative to racing.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.