I don’t really have a gripe with people who want to put relatively small probabilities on near-term AGI, like the superforecasters who guessed there’s a 1% chance of AGI by 2030. Who knows anything about anything? Maybe Jill Stein has a 1% chance of winning in 2028! But 50% by 2032 is definitely way too high and I actually don’t think there’s a rational basis for thinking that.
I don’t really have a gripe with people who want to put relatively small probabilities on near-term AGI, like the superforecasters who guessed there’s a 1% chance of AGI by 2030. Who knows anything about anything? Maybe Jill Stein has a 1% chance of winning in 2028! But 50% by 2032 is definitely way too high and I actually don’t think there’s a rational basis for thinking that.