If there’s at least a 1% chance that we don’t experience catastrophe soon, and we can have reasonable expected influence over no-catastrophe-soon futures, and there’s a reasonable chance that such futures have astronomical importance, then patient philanthropy is quite good in expectation. Given my empirical beliefs, it’s much better then GiveDirectly. And that’s just a lower bound; e.g., investing in movement-building might well be even better.
If there’s at least a 1% chance that we don’t experience catastrophe soon, and we can have reasonable expected influence over no-catastrophe-soon futures, and there’s a reasonable chance that such futures have astronomical importance, then patient philanthropy is quite good in expectation. Given my empirical beliefs, it’s much better then GiveDirectly. And that’s just a lower bound; e.g., investing in movement-building might well be even better.