I probably wouldn’t single out THL this way. Many orgs were involved in supporting Prop 12, and I don’t know that THL was leading the efforts (I would guess HSUS, if I had to guess one org, but with low confidence). I’m also not sure THL would claim their support in particular reduced the suffering of 40M animals. Instead, they supported Prop 12, and 40M animals were affected by Prop 12 so far (at the time), at 40 million hens/​year (Vox, quoted here by THL).[1]
On the other hand, they might not mean it counterfactually, and could be comparing to the world without them and where no one replaced their work, and they really do mean 40 million this way. If someone needs CPR, and there are two people available, ready and willing to perform CPR, but only one does, then the one who does perform CPR gets to say they saved the person needing CPR, even if this person would have been saved by the other anyway.
Or, THL might actually mean it counterfactually and believe it probably wouldn’t have passed without them, even if others would have done more to make up for (some of) what THL did.
I haven’t seen any attempts to justify either claim, and it seems more likely they’re just using Vox’s 40M animals number directly.
Thanks for your strong caveats, supported by deeper research!
There’s probably a much more rigorous statement to be made regarding THL’s impact and EA funding which led to accomplish it, but my above comment wasn’t it.
I probably wouldn’t single out THL this way. Many orgs were involved in supporting Prop 12, and I don’t know that THL was leading the efforts (I would guess HSUS, if I had to guess one org, but with low confidence). I’m also not sure THL would claim their support in particular reduced the suffering of 40M animals. Instead, they supported Prop 12, and 40M animals were affected by Prop 12 so far (at the time), at 40 million hens/​year (Vox, quoted here by THL).[1]
Also, little of that $45M would have gone towards Prop 12 work, as the vast majority of that was probably for corporate campaigns/​outreach. Open Phil granted $4M for work on Prop 12 specifically leading up to it, and another $250K more recently to defend it at the Supreme Court, neither specifically to THL. Open Phil seems to have provided less than 1/​3rd of the funds in support of Prop 12 (at least directly earmarked for Prop 12).
On the other hand, they might not mean it counterfactually, and could be comparing to the world without them and where no one replaced their work, and they really do mean 40 million this way. If someone needs CPR, and there are two people available, ready and willing to perform CPR, but only one does, then the one who does perform CPR gets to say they saved the person needing CPR, even if this person would have been saved by the other anyway.
Or, THL might actually mean it counterfactually and believe it probably wouldn’t have passed without them, even if others would have done more to make up for (some of) what THL did.
I haven’t seen any attempts to justify either claim, and it seems more likely they’re just using Vox’s 40M animals number directly.
Thanks for your strong caveats, supported by deeper research!
There’s probably a much more rigorous statement to be made regarding THL’s impact and EA funding which led to accomplish it, but my above comment wasn’t it.