Thanks for this analysis, I found this a very interesting report! As we’ve discussed, there are a number of convergent lines of analysis, which Di Cooke, Kayla Matteucci and I also came to for our research paper ‘Military Artificial Intelligence as Contributor to Global Catastrophic Risk’ on the EA Forum ( link ; SSRN).
Although by comparison we focused more on the operational and logistical limits to producing and using LAWS swarms en masse, and we sliced the nuclear risk escalation scenarios slightly different. We also put less focus on the question of ‘given this risk portfolio, what governance interventions are more/less useful’.
This is part of ongoing work (including a larger project and article that also examines the military developers/operators angle on AGI alignment/misuse risks, and the ‘arsenal overhang (extant military [& nuclear] infrastructures) as a contributor to misalignment risk’ arguments (for the latter, see also some of Michael Aird’s discussion here), though that had to be cut from this chapter for reasons of length and focus.
Thanks for this analysis, I found this a very interesting report! As we’ve discussed, there are a number of convergent lines of analysis, which Di Cooke, Kayla Matteucci and I also came to for our research paper ‘Military Artificial Intelligence as Contributor to Global Catastrophic Risk’ on the EA Forum ( link ; SSRN).
Although by comparison we focused more on the operational and logistical limits to producing and using LAWS swarms en masse, and we sliced the nuclear risk escalation scenarios slightly different. We also put less focus on the question of ‘given this risk portfolio, what governance interventions are more/less useful’.
This is part of ongoing work (including a larger project and article that also examines the military developers/operators angle on AGI alignment/misuse risks, and the ‘arsenal overhang (extant military [& nuclear] infrastructures) as a contributor to misalignment risk’ arguments (for the latter, see also some of Michael Aird’s discussion here), though that had to be cut from this chapter for reasons of length and focus.