NVIDIA’s stock price has risen by about 25% in the past month or so. Seems like the market believes AI Pause is going to fail?
I like the idea of using stock prices as a metric for whether AI pause will succeed or not. Aside from the obvious point that stock prices represent an aggregate of what investors believe, this metric also seems fairly resistant to Goodharting. If you can find some way to make NVIDIA’s stock crash, that will probably trigger less AI investment, which acts like a partial pause.
Seems like there’s currently a feedback loop between AI progress, hype, and investment. Any one of those three could be a good target if you want things to slow down.
NVIDIA’s stock price has risen by about 25% in the past month or so. Seems like the market believes AI Pause is going to fail?
I like the idea of using stock prices as a metric for whether AI pause will succeed or not. Aside from the obvious point that stock prices represent an aggregate of what investors believe, this metric also seems fairly resistant to Goodharting. If you can find some way to make NVIDIA’s stock crash, that will probably trigger less AI investment, which acts like a partial pause.
Seems like there’s currently a feedback loop between AI progress, hype, and investment. Any one of those three could be a good target if you want things to slow down.