About a month ago, @Akash stated on Less Wrong that he’d be interested to see more analysis of possible international institutions to build and govern AGI (which I will refer to in this quick take as “i-AGI”).
I suspect many EAs would prefer an international/i-AGI scenario. However, it’s not clear that countries with current AI leadership would be willing to give that leadership away.
International AI competition is often framed as US vs China or similar, but it occurred to me that a “AI-leaders vs AI-laggards” frame could be even more important. AI-laggard countries are just as exposed to AGI existential risk, but presumably stand less to gain, on expectation, in a world where the US or China “wins” an AI race.
So here’s a proposal for getting from where we are right now to i-AGI:
EAs who live in AI-laggard countries, and are interested in policy, lobby their country’s citizens/diplomats to push for i-AGI.
Since many countries harbor some distrust of both the US and China, and all countries are exposed to AGI x-risk, diplomats in AI-laggard countries become persuaded that i-AGI is in their nation’s self-interest.
Diplomats in AI-laggard countries start talking to each other, and form an i-AGI bloc analogous to the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War. Countries in the i-AGI bloc push for an AI Pause and/or subordination of AGI development to well-designed international institutions. Detailed proposals are drawn up by seasoned diplomats, with specifics regarding e.g. when it should be appropriate to airstrike a datacenter.
As AI continues to advance, more and more AI-laggard countries become alarmed and join the i-AGI bloc. AI pause movements in other countries don’t face the “but China” argument to the same degree it is seen in the US, so they find traction rapidly with political leaders.
The i-AGI bloc puts pressure on both the US and China to switch to i-AGI. Initially this could take the form of diplomats arguing about X-risk. As the bloc grows, it could take the form of sanctions etc. -- perhaps targeting pain points such as semiconductors or power generation.
Eventually, the US and China cave to international pressure, plus growing alarm from their own citizens, and agree to an i-AGI proposal. The new i-AGI regime has international monitoring in place so nations can’t cheat, and solid governance which dis-incentivizes racing.
Note the above story could just be one specific scenario among a broader class of such scenarios. My overall point is that “AI laggard” nations may have an important role to play in pushing for an end to racing. E.g. maybe forming a bloc is unnecessary, and a country like Singapore would be able to negotiate a US/China AI treaty all on its own. I wonder what Singaporeans like @Dion @dion-1 and @xuan think?
Trying to think of who else might be interested. @Holly_Elmore perhaps? I encourage people to share as appropriate if you think this is worth considering.
FYI I don’t really understand Forum tags but I think none of your @name mentions actually tagged anyone (I would expect them to turn into a blue profile link if they did work)
About a month ago, @Akash stated on Less Wrong that he’d be interested to see more analysis of possible international institutions to build and govern AGI (which I will refer to in this quick take as “i-AGI”).
I suspect many EAs would prefer an international/i-AGI scenario. However, it’s not clear that countries with current AI leadership would be willing to give that leadership away.
International AI competition is often framed as US vs China or similar, but it occurred to me that a “AI-leaders vs AI-laggards” frame could be even more important. AI-laggard countries are just as exposed to AGI existential risk, but presumably stand less to gain, on expectation, in a world where the US or China “wins” an AI race.
So here’s a proposal for getting from where we are right now to i-AGI:
EAs who live in AI-laggard countries, and are interested in policy, lobby their country’s citizens/diplomats to push for i-AGI.
Since many countries harbor some distrust of both the US and China, and all countries are exposed to AGI x-risk, diplomats in AI-laggard countries become persuaded that i-AGI is in their nation’s self-interest.
Diplomats in AI-laggard countries start talking to each other, and form an i-AGI bloc analogous to the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War. Countries in the i-AGI bloc push for an AI Pause and/or subordination of AGI development to well-designed international institutions. Detailed proposals are drawn up by seasoned diplomats, with specifics regarding e.g. when it should be appropriate to airstrike a datacenter.
As AI continues to advance, more and more AI-laggard countries become alarmed and join the i-AGI bloc. AI pause movements in other countries don’t face the “but China” argument to the same degree it is seen in the US, so they find traction rapidly with political leaders.
The i-AGI bloc puts pressure on both the US and China to switch to i-AGI. Initially this could take the form of diplomats arguing about X-risk. As the bloc grows, it could take the form of sanctions etc. -- perhaps targeting pain points such as semiconductors or power generation.
Eventually, the US and China cave to international pressure, plus growing alarm from their own citizens, and agree to an i-AGI proposal. The new i-AGI regime has international monitoring in place so nations can’t cheat, and solid governance which dis-incentivizes racing.
Note the above story could just be one specific scenario among a broader class of such scenarios. My overall point is that “AI laggard” nations may have an important role to play in pushing for an end to racing. E.g. maybe forming a bloc is unnecessary, and a country like Singapore would be able to negotiate a US/China AI treaty all on its own. I wonder what Singaporeans like @Dion @dion-1 and @xuan think?
Trying to think of who else might be interested. @Holly_Elmore perhaps? I encourage people to share as appropriate if you think this is worth considering.
FYI I don’t really understand Forum tags but I think none of your @name mentions actually tagged anyone (I would expect them to turn into a blue profile link if they did work)