Executive summary: A model is presented for estimating the value of research aimed at influencing funders’ allocations. Key inputs include chance of influencing funder decisions, amounts donated, cost-effectiveness of current vs. potential funding, and research costs.
Key points:
The model estimates the impact of research by assessing the likelihood of influencing a funder and the resulting change in funding cost-effectiveness.
It accounts for research costs, donation amounts, years of influence, and uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are used.
Examples suggest research can often compare favorably to direct funding even with limited years of influence.
Shifting funders from low to moderate cost-effectiveness can be highly cost-effective.
Limitations include estimating influence, transition costs, alternate uses of money, declining returns, and uncertainty.
The model currently uses an expected value framework and doesn’t account for risk aversion or moral uncertainty.
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Executive summary: A model is presented for estimating the value of research aimed at influencing funders’ allocations. Key inputs include chance of influencing funder decisions, amounts donated, cost-effectiveness of current vs. potential funding, and research costs.
Key points:
The model estimates the impact of research by assessing the likelihood of influencing a funder and the resulting change in funding cost-effectiveness.
It accounts for research costs, donation amounts, years of influence, and uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are used.
Examples suggest research can often compare favorably to direct funding even with limited years of influence.
Shifting funders from low to moderate cost-effectiveness can be highly cost-effective.
Limitations include estimating influence, transition costs, alternate uses of money, declining returns, and uncertainty.
The model currently uses an expected value framework and doesn’t account for risk aversion or moral uncertainty.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.