Thanks for writing this! Indeed counterfactuals are hard. I have also joined a large EA org (Rethink Priorities) and so far agree it is useful. I think a possible failure mode for me is that I am a bit risk-averse, and also just really like working with EAs, so I’m guessing if in X months/​years time I have the option to go off and start/​do something by myself or with a small group I might be reluctant to leave a nice, comfortable, convenient, EA org like RP. But I agree there are lots of advantages to working at an established org, at least for a while at the start of my career.
Thanks for writing this! Indeed counterfactuals are hard. I have also joined a large EA org (Rethink Priorities) and so far agree it is useful. I think a possible failure mode for me is that I am a bit risk-averse, and also just really like working with EAs, so I’m guessing if in X months/​years time I have the option to go off and start/​do something by myself or with a small group I might be reluctant to leave a nice, comfortable, convenient, EA org like RP. But I agree there are lots of advantages to working at an established org, at least for a while at the start of my career.