We do track whether predictions have a positive (“good thing will happen”) or negative (“bad thing will happen”) framing, so testing for optimism/pessimism bias is definitely possible. However, only 2% of predictions have a negative framing, so our sample size is too low to say anything conclusive about this yet.
Enriching our database with base rates and categories would be fantastic, but my hunch is that given the nature and phrasing of our questions this would be impossible to do at scale. I’m much more bullish on per-predictor analyses and that’s more or less what we’re doing with the individual dashboards.
We do track whether predictions have a positive (“good thing will happen”) or negative (“bad thing will happen”) framing, so testing for optimism/pessimism bias is definitely possible. However, only 2% of predictions have a negative framing, so our sample size is too low to say anything conclusive about this yet.
Enriching our database with base rates and categories would be fantastic, but my hunch is that given the nature and phrasing of our questions this would be impossible to do at scale. I’m much more bullish on per-predictor analyses and that’s more or less what we’re doing with the individual dashboards.